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Hays Rebels footballPosted November 9, 2007, 8:30 a.m.
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Hays Highway Editor
BUDA – One more step. But it's a steep step. The Hays Rebels need to take one more steep step up in their game tonight against Cibolo Steele at Bob Shelton Stadium if their season is to continue.
Ordinarily, that challenge presents itself in the playoffs. But if the Rebels wait until the playoffs, they're not likely to make the playoffs.
"We're hoping we haven't played at our best level, yet," Hays Coach Bob Shelton said.
Shelton hopes the Rebels move towards their best level tonight, because they're in elimination mode, except the bar is actually higher than that. To make the Class 4A playoffs, the Rebels (6-3 overall, 4-2 District 26-4A) probably need to beat Steele (8-1, 5-1) by six in tonight's regular season finale. That means the Rebels, who have played from behind for the last three weeks, need to play from ahead, stay ahead, and even put themselves further ahead.
Once in the playoffs, all anyone has to do is win. At that point, the Rebels can come from behind. But if they're coming from behind tonight, tomorrow very likely becomes a great, big "what if."
The Rebels make the playoffs if they win and Schertz Clemens beats New Braunfels Canyon. But if Canyon wins, the Rebels need that six-point margin against Steele. If the Rebels could win by eight points or more, so much the better, because it would likely start them in the playoffs next weekend against Marble Falls, rather than Lake Travis.
The situation adds up to a little bit more than a game for the Rebels, who enter tied for third place in District 26-4A with Canyon, each at 4-2 in the league. As Canyon holds the tiebreaker with last Friday's 49-42 win against the Rebels, Hays needs to drop Steele from 5-1 in the district to a three-way tie for second, in which case Hays, Steele and Canyon all would be 5-2.
At that juncture, positive points differential in the games played among those teams comes into play to decide which two enter the playoffs. Canyon holds that tiebreaker with its seven-point win against Hays, while Steele beat Canyon by six. Tonight's game will complete the triangle, which is why the points margin is decisive.
"We've got to go into the game preparing to play a good football game and hope things break right," Shelton said. "The points would come into play when you get late in the game and you have to make decisions on things to do depending on how the game is."
If Hays wins by six tonight, then Canyon is in and Hays would be the third-place team by beating Steele head-to-head. But Hays needs to join the three-way tiebreaker with a win of at least six points before the two-way head-to-head tiebreaker with Steele even comes into play.
And if that isn't confusing enough, consider the issues involved with managing a close game in the late stages. Bear in mind, the final score decides the point margin, so a six-point win in overtime is a six-point win.
"I really hate to be in a situation with points because you could end up not scoring at the end of the game, going for a tie rather than a win," Shelton said. "A lot of things go in there because of the points. If you get into overtime, you couldn't take a field goal to win because you have to win by six. Or, you have to kick a field goal instead of a scoring a touchdown to go into another overtime, so you have a chance to win by six."
Is there a way around this labyrinth of close-game calculations? There is, and the Rebels possess the means for finding it, because they have, by far, the most dynamic and productive offense in District 26-4A.
The Rebels have gained 2,348 yards in District 26-4A games, more than 300 yards ahead of any other team in the league. The Rebels average 391.3 yards in district games. In addition to working late-game miracles, quarterback Clayton Rogers is up to 2,087 yards of total offense for the entire season, 915 on the ground and 1,172 through the air.
It's true that Steele's defense has pitched three shutouts and allowed only 65 points in six district games. It's also true that Hays and New Braunfels are the only district teams to demonstrate consistent aptitude with the passing game in recent years, and New Braunfels beat Steele, 35-0, throwing for 159 yards, the most Steele has allowed during the district schedule.
Excepting their 24-17 loss to New Braunfels, which already has clinched the district championship, the Rebels have scored 34 points or more against every district opponent. If any team can a blowout, they can.
Of course, that brushes past two important factors. First, Steele leads District 26-4A in total defense, giving up only 1,446 yards in league games, an average of 241 yards. Second, Hays ranks sixth among eight district teams in total defense, allowing 1,834 yards in its league contests, an average of 305.7.
But there is, perhaps, a silver lining or two for the Hays defense. First, Steele is one of the district's weakest offensive teams. The Knights rank seventh in total offense with 1,389 yards in six league games, an average of 231.5. Despite winning five of six district games, the Knights actually have allowed more yards with their league-leading defense than they have gained with their offense.
Steele running backs Julius Montgomery (723 rushing yards for the entire season) and Keith Brown (516 rushing yards), provide an outside-inside attack on the ground. But the Knights have only thrown 61 times for 397 yards all season. If the Rebels can stop Steele's running game, that's a good bit more than half of the defensive battle.
Then again, the Rebels didn't succeed last week, when they only needed to stop Canyon running back Robert Clay and running quarterback Tyler Denson, who combined for 324 rushing yards. But Canyon is also a different kind of running attack, with a larger offensive line. And the Hays defense might have been due for a fall after playing its best game a week earlier, when it allowed only 268 yards in a double-overtime win at Clemens.
"We didn't play with the intensity we need to (against Canyon)," Shelton said. "They had probably the biggest offensive line we've seen. They did a good job of putting their big bodies on our little bodies. We had a game where we didn't play as well as we needed to play. In fairness to our guys, we had a couple games in a row where we went into overtime."
Last season, the Rebels went to Schertz for their final regular season game against Steele needing a win and a Clemens win over Canyon to enter the playoffs. The Rebels hung a 42-3 on Steele and Clemens came through against Canyon. This year, it isn't so simple.
Steele is a different team in its second varsity season, avenging every district loss from last year except for its loss to Canyon. And the Rebels need to do just a little more.
"When we got to the middle of the season, we had five games left and we talked to the kids about how this is the murders row and we have to gear up for five tough games in a row," Shelton said. "From that standpoint, we're pretty fortunate that we're still standing and we've still got a shot."
Tonight is that shot. The Rebels need a steep step up to take it.
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